The Record
Every lean we print is logged before tip with the line at the time, then graded on the final score and against where the line closed. Hits and misses in the same font size. "Cleared" means the number was cleared; nothing here is a suggestion about what to do with it.
By confidence
The tier says how far our number stood from the book, not how hard to lean. Over a season this table tells us, and you, whether being far from the market has meant anything.
| Market | Tier | Record | Cleared |
|---|
The ledger
| Date | Game | Spread · our lean | Over/Under · our lean | Final |
|---|
Each game shows our lean on the spread and on the total, as printed in that morning's preview with the line at the time: the team or side we leaned, then the line we measured against at the time ("GS -2.5" is Golden State against a 2.5-point line; "Under 151.5" is the under against a 151.5 total), then a rule, then our tier and the grade. The small line beneath each lean is how the game actually landed (the margin for the team we leaned, or the combined score for the total), so the grade can be checked by eye. The letter next to the lean is our confidence tier, in ink rather than color so it never reads as a grade: a solid S for Strong, an outlined L for Lean, a dashed T for Toss-up, set by how far our number stood from the market, not by how hard to lean. The mark next to it is the grade against the final score: a green check when the number was cleared, a red X when it was missed, a gold dash for a push. An open circle means the game has not been graded yet; a dotted circle means no tier was recorded for that lean.
Cards marked INTEL were behind the Tome Intel gate in that morning's preview; the three free cards each night go to the most prominent games by national window and matchup, never by confidence. Every card, free or Intel, is graded here the same way.
Closing-line value (CLV) is the line at pick time minus the line at close, from the side we leaned: positive means the market moved our way after we logged it. It is the one number that shows up in a hundred picks rather than ten thousand, which is why it sits next to the record instead of under it.